Future PC Sales: Up and Down
Future PC Sales Will Be Strongly Impacted by Economic Cycles


August 27, 2002—After 25 years of strong growth, the PC industry has reached maturity and its future growth will be determined by economic conditions. Future PC unit sales growth will remain below 10% and economic recessions will produce PC sales contractions as we saw in 2001. However, the PC industry will see long term growth, but year-to-year growth are no longer certain. PCs-in-use will continue to grow in all regions of the world and will double by 2010 in many regions. PCs-in-use in the USA reached 175M in 2001 and will pass 300M by 2010. Worldwide PCs-in-use surpassed 525M in 2001 and will top 1.1B units in 2007.

Yearly PC Sales (Thousands)
1990
1995
2000
2002
2004
2007
Worldwide
24,175
57,985
129,670
133,920
158,790
206,690
North America
10,290
23,030
49,450
46,990
52,570
60,900
  USA
9,540
21,370
46,005
43,450
48,980
56,830
Western Europe
8,050
15,870
32,280
32,490
36,890
46,230
Eastern Europe
555
2,180
5,070
6,320
8,050
11,850
Asia-Pacific
3,825
12,635
31,190
35,590
44,620
61,960
South/Central America
765
2,570
6,840
7,360
9,330
14,060
Middle East/Africa
690
1,700
4,850
5,470
7,330
11,690

These are some of the results from a new market research report by Computer Industry Almanac. “Annual PC sales is now much more dependent on replacement sales than sales to new customers” says Dr. Egil Juliussen, the author of the report. “This means that the economic life of the average PC will become the largest factor in determining annual PC unit sales”.

In 2007 the PC industry will pass another milestone when worldwide PC sales will surpass 200M units, but this is two year later than was expected in early 2000. W. Europe and N. America have the highest PC adoption rates and consequently will have the slowest growth rates and have the highest risk for PC sales declines during economic downturns.

Computer Industry Almanac publishes market research reports for the PC, PDA, information appliances and Internet industries. For more information see Market Research Reports.

 
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