Future
PC Sales: Up and Down
Future PC Sales Will Be Strongly Impacted by Economic Cycles
August 27, 2002—After 25 years of strong growth, the PC industry has reached maturity and its future growth will be determined by economic conditions. Future PC unit sales growth will remain below 10% and economic recessions will produce PC sales contractions as we saw in 2001. However, the PC industry will see long term growth, but year-to-year growth are no longer certain. PCs-in-use will continue to grow in all regions of the world and will double by 2010 in many regions. PCs-in-use in the USA reached 175M in 2001 and will pass 300M by 2010. Worldwide PCs-in-use surpassed 525M in 2001 and will top 1.1B units in 2007.
| Yearly PC Sales (Thousands) | 1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2007 |
||
| Worldwide | 24,175 |
57,985 |
129,670 |
133,920 |
158,790 |
206,690 |
||
| North America | 10,290 |
23,030 |
49,450 |
46,990 |
52,570 |
60,900 |
||
|
9,540 |
21,370 |
46,005 |
43,450 |
48,980 |
56,830 |
||
| Western Europe | 8,050 |
15,870 |
32,280 |
32,490 |
36,890 |
46,230 |
||
| Eastern Europe | 555 |
2,180 |
5,070 |
6,320 |
8,050 |
11,850 |
||
| Asia-Pacific | 3,825 |
12,635 |
31,190 |
35,590 |
44,620 |
61,960 |
||
| South/Central America | 765 |
2,570 |
6,840 |
7,360 |
9,330 |
14,060 |
||
| Middle East/Africa | 690 |
1,700 |
4,850 |
5,470 |
7,330 |
11,690 |
These are some of the results from a new market research report by Computer Industry Almanac. “Annual PC sales is now much more dependent on replacement sales than sales to new customers” says Dr. Egil Juliussen, the author of the report. “This means that the economic life of the average PC will become the largest factor in determining annual PC unit sales”.
In 2007 the PC industry will pass another milestone when worldwide PC sales will surpass 200M units, but this is two year later than was expected in early 2000. W. Europe and N. America have the highest PC adoption rates and consequently will have the slowest growth rates and have the highest risk for PC sales declines during economic downturns.
Computer Industry Almanac publishes market research reports for the PC, PDA, information appliances and Internet industries. For more information see Market Research Reports.
