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Worldwide PC Forecast
A Perspective and a top-down view of the PC Industry —
Past, Present and Future Trends

 Table of Contents

1.0 Executive Summary 6
1.1 PC Market Segments 7
1.2 PC Vendor Shipments 9
1.3 New PC Opportunities 9
2.0 PC Forecast Summary 11
2.1 What is Included in the PC Shipment Forecast? 11
2.2 PC Market Perspectives 13
2.3 Worldwide PC Sales Summary 13
2.4 USA PC Sales Summary 15
2.5 Historical Perspectives on USA PC Industry 18
3.0 PC Technology Trends 23
3.1 Technology Trends 23
3.2 Semiconductor Technologies 26
3.3 PC Technology Trends 28
3.4 Mass Storage Technologies 33
3.4.1 Memory Cards 36
3.5 Emerging PC Opportunities 37
4.0 Worldwide PC Forecast 40
4.1 What Countries are in each Region 40
4.2 Total PC Unit Sales by Region 41
4.3 Server PC Unit Sales by Region 43
4.4 Desktop PC Unit Sales by Region 45
4.5 Mobile PC Unit Sales by Region 46
4.5.1 Laptop PC Forecast 47
4.5.2 Netbook PC Forecast 48
4.5.3 Tablet PC Forecast 50
4.6 PCs in Use by Region 51
4.7 PCs in Homes by Region 55
4.8 PCs in Businesses by Region 57
5.0 Worldwide PC Revenues 59
5.1 Total PC Revenues by Region 59
5.2 Server PC Revenues by Region 60
5.3 Desktop PC Revenues by Regions 61
5.4 Mobile PC Revenues by Region 62
6.0 Worldwide Shipments of Leading PC Vendors 65
6.1 U.S. Shipments of Leading PC Vendors 67
7.0 Forecast Methodology and Assumptions 70
7.1 PC Demand Factors 72
7.2 Ultimate PC Penetration Rates 74
7.3 PC Forecast Assumptions 77
8.0 Forecast Spreadsheet Details 80
8.1 PC Market Summary by Region 81
8.1.1 USA PC Market Summary 81
8.1.2 N. America PC Market Summary 83
8.1.3 W. Europe PC Market Summary 85
8.1.4 E. Europe PC Market Summary 87
8.1.5 Europe PC Market Summary 89
8.1.6 Asia Pacific PC Market Summary 92
8.1.7 Latin America PC Market Summary 94
8.1.8 M. East/Africa PC Market Summary 96
8.1.9 Worldwide PC Market Summary 98
8.2 PC Manufacturer Summary 100
8.2.1 Acer 100
8.2.2 Apple 101
8.2.3 Compaq (Historical Data) 103
8.2.4 Dell Computer 104
8.2.5 Gateway 105
8.2.6 Hewlett-Packard 106
8.2.7 IBM Historical Data 108
8.2.8 Lenovo 109
8.2.9 NEC 110
8.2.10 Toshiba 111
9.0 PC Industry Resources 113
9.1 PC-Related Newsletters 113
9.2 PC-Related Magazines 114
9.3 PC-Related Websites 115
9.4 PC-Related Organizations 116
9.6 Other Research Reports by Computer Industry Almanac 119

List of Tables and Figures

Table 1.1 U.S. and Worldwide PC Market Growth 6
Figure 1.1 PC Unit Sales by Regions 6
Table 1.2 U.S. and Worldwide PC Market Segments 7
Figure 1.2 PCs In-Use by Regions 7
Table 1.3 U.S. and Worldwide PCs-in-Use and PC Sales Per 1,000 People 8
Table 1.4 PC Sales of Leading Vendors 9
Table 1.5 Emerging PC Opportunities 10
Table 2.1 What Is Included in the PC Sales Forecast? 11
Table 2.2 PC Market Perspectives 13
Table 2.3 Worldwide PC Market 14
Figure 2.1 Worldwide PC Sales by Product Segments 15
Table 2.4 Worldwide PC Market Segments 15
Table 2.5 USA PC Market 16
Figure 2.2 USA PC Product Unit Sales 17
Table 2.6 USA PC Market Segments 17
Table 2.7 USA Historical PC Sales 18
Table 2.8 USA PC Generations: 1-3 18
Table 2.9 USA PC Generations: 4-6 19
Table 2.10 USA PC Generations: 7-9 20
Table 2.11 USA PC Generations: 10-11 22
Figure 3.1 Technologies for PCs 23
Figure 3.2 Technology Price-Performance Wedge 24
Table 3.1 Technology Wedge Impact 25
Figure 3.3 Technology Wedge Families 25
Table 3.2 Semiconductor Technology Trends 26
Table 3.3 PC Technology Trends 28
Table 3.4 Network-Communications Technologies 31
Table 3.5 Storage Technology Trends 34
Table 3.6 Small Form Factor Memory Cards 36
Table 3.7 New PC Opportunities 38
Table 4.1 Countries by Regions 40
Table 4.2 PC Unit Sales by Region 41
Table 4.3 Regional Market Shares for PC Unit Sales 43
Table 4.4 Regional PC Unit Sales Per 1,000 People 43
Table 4.5 Server PC Unit Sales by Region 43
Table 4.6 Regional Market Shares for Server PC Unit Sale 44
Table 4.7 Desktop PC Unit Sales by Region 45
Table 4.8 Regional Desktop PC Unit Sale Market Shares 46
Table 4.9 Mobile PC Unit Sales by Region 46
Table 4.10 Regional Mobile PC Unit Sale Market Shares 47
Table 4.11 Laptop PC Unit Sales by Region 47
Table 4.12 Regional Laptop PC Unit Sale Market Shares 48
Table 4.13 Netbook PC Sales by Region 49
Table 4.14 Regional Netbook PC Unit Sale Market Shares 49
Table 4.15 Tablet PC Unit Sales by Region 50
Table 4.16 Regional Tablet PC Unit Sales Market Shares 51
Table 4.17 PCs-in-Use per 1,000 People by Region 52
Table 4.18 PCs-in-Use by Region 52
Table 4.19 Server PCs-in-Use by Region 53
Table 4.20 Desktop PCs-in-Use by Region 53
Table 4.21 Mobile PCs-in-Use by Region 54
Table 4.22 Households with PCs by Region 55
Table 4.23 PCs-in-User per Household by Region 56
Table 4.24 PCs in Homes by Region 56
Table 4.25 Share of PCs in Homes of Total PCs by Region 57
Table 4.26 PCs in Business by Region 57
Table 4.27 Share of PCs in Businesses of Total PCs by Region 58
Table 5.1 Worldwide PC Revenues by Region 59
Table 5.2 Regional PC Revenue Market Shares 60
Table 5.3 Server PC Revenue by Region 60
Table 5.4 Regional Server Revenue Market Shares 61
Table 5.5 Desktop PC Revenue by Region 62
Table 5.6 Regional Desktop PC Revenue Market Shares 62
Table 5.7 Mobile PC Revenue by Region 63
Table 5.8 Regional Mobile PC Revenue Market Shares 63
Table 6.1 Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Shipments: 1990-1999 65
Table 6.2 Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Shipments: 2000-2007 65
Table 6.3 Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Shipments: 2008-2015 66
Table 6.4 Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Unit Market Shares 66
Table 6.5 Top 10 PC Brands in 2010 67
Table 6.6 Leading PC Vendors' USA Shipments: 1990-1999 68
Table 6.7 Leading PC Vendors' USA Shipments: 2000-2007 68
Table 6.8 Leading PC Vendors' USA Shipments: 2008-2015 69
Table 6.9 Leading PC Vendors' USA Unit Market Shares 69
Table 7.1 PC Demand Factors 72
Table 7.2 USA Ultimate PC Penetration in 2020 74
Table 7.3 2020 USA PC Replacement Sales Scenario 75
Table 7.4 Ultimate PC Penetration Factors 76
Table 7.5 PC Forecast Assumptions 77
Table 7.6 PC Product Trend Assumptions 78
Table 8.1 PC Shipment Forecast Content 80
Table 8.2 PC Vendor Forecast Content 80
Table 8.3 USA PC Market Summary 81
Table 8.4 N. America PC Market Summary 83
Table 8.5 W. Europe PC Market Summary 85
Table 8.6 E. Europe PC Market Summary 87
Table 8.7 Europe PC Market Summary 90
Table 8.8 Asia Pacific PC Market Summary 92
Table 8.9 Latin American PC Market Summary 94
Table 8.10 M. East/Africa PC Market Summary 96
Table 8.11 Worldwide PC Market Summary 98
Table 8.12 Acer 100
Table 8.13 Apple 102
Table 8.13 Compaq Computer (Historical Data) 103
Table 8.15 Dell Computer 104
Table 8.16 Gateway (Historical Data) 105
Table 8.17 Hewlett Packard 107
Table 8.18 IBM (Historical Data) 108
Table 8.19 Lenovo PC Business 109
Table 8.20 NEC 110
Table 8.21 Toshiba 111
Table 9.1 PC-Related Newsletters 113
Table 9.2 PC-Related Magazines 114
Table 9.3 PC-Related Websites 115
Table 9.4 PC-Related Organizations 116

 
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