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Worldwide PC Forecast
A Perspective and a top-down view of the PC Industry —
Past, Present and Future Trends

 Table of Contents

1.0 Executive Summary 6
1.1 PC Market Segments 7
1.2 New PC Opportunities 8
1.3 PC Versus PDA Sales 9
2.0 Introduction and Definitions 12
2.1 What is Included in the PC Shipment Forecast? 12
2.2 PC Market Perspectives 13
2.3 Worldwide PC Sales Summary 14
2.4 USA PC Sales Summary 16
2.5 Historical Perspectives on USA PC Industry 18
3.0 PC Technology Trends 23
3.1 Technology Trends 23
3.2 Semiconductor Technologies 26
3.3 PC Technology Trends 27
3.4 Mass Storage Technologies 32
3.4.1 Memory Cards 35
3.5 Emerging PC Opportunities 36
4.0 Worldwide PC Unit Forecast 38
4.1 Total PC Unit Sales by Region 38
4.2 Server PC Unit Sales by Region 40
4.3 Desktop PC Unit Sales by Region 41
4.4 Mobile PC Unit Sales by Region 43
4.4.1 Tablet PC Forecast 44
4.5 PCs-in-Use by Region 45
4.6 PCs in Homes by Region 48
4.7 PCs in Businesses by Region 51
5.0 Worldwide PC Revenues 53
5.1 Total PC Revenues by Region 53
5.2 Server PC Revenues by Region 54
5.3 Desktop PC Revenues by Regions 55
5.4 Mobile PC Revenues by Region 57
6.0 Worldwide Shipments of Leading PC Vendors 59
6.1 U.S. Shipments of Leading PC Vendors 61
7.0 Forecast Methodology and Assumptions 63
7.1 PC Demand Factors 64
7.2 Ultimate PC Penetration Rates 66
7.3 PC Forecast Assumptions 69
8.0 Forecast Spreadsheet Details 72
8.1 PC Market Summary by Region 73
8.1.1 USA PC Market Summary 73
8.1.2 N. America PC Market Summary 75
8.1.3 W. Europe PC Market Summary 78
8.1.4 E. Europe PC Market Summary 80
8.1.5 Europe PC Market Summary 83
8.1.6 Asia Pacific PC Market Summary 85
8.1.7 Latin America PC Market Summary 88
8.1.8 M. East/Africa PC Market Summary 90
8.1.9 Worldwide PC Market Summary 93
8.2 PC Manufacturer Summary 95
8.2.1 Apple Computer 95
8.2.2 Compaq (Historical Data) 97
8.2.3 Dell Computer 98
8.2.4 Gateway 100
8.2.5 Hewlett-Packard 101
8.2.6 IBM 103
8.2.7 NEC/Packard Bell 104
8.2.8 Toshiba 106
9.0 PC Industry Resources 108
9.1 PC-Related Newsletters 108
9.2 PC-Related Magazines 109
9.3 PC-Related Websites 110
9.4 PC-Related Organizations 111
9.5 Author Bio 115
9.6 Other Research Reports by eTForecasts 115

List of Tables and Figures

Table 1.1 U.S. and Worldwide PC Market Growth 6
Figure 1.1 PC Sales by Regions 6
Table 1.2 U.S. and Worldwide PC Market Segments 7
Figure 1.2 PCs In-Use by Regions 7
Table 1.3 U.S. and Worldwide PCs-in-Use and PC Sales Per 1,000 People 8
Table 1.4 PC Sales of Leading Vendors 9
Table 1.5 New PC Opportunities 10
Table 2.1 What Is Included in the PC Sales Forecast? 12
Table 2.2 PC Market Perspectives 14
Table 2.3 Worldwide PC Market 14
Figure 2.1 Worldwide PC Sales by Product Segments 15
Table 2.4 Worldwide PC Market Segments 15
Table 2.5 USA PC Market 16
Figure 2.2 USA PC Product Unit Sales 18
Table 2.6 USA PC Market Segments 18
Table 2.7 USA Historical PC Sales 19
Table 2.8 USA PC Generations: 1-3 19
Table 2.9 USA PC Generations: 4-6 20
Table 2.10 USA PC Generations: 7-10 21
Figure 3.1 Technologies for PCs 23
Figure 3.2 Technology Price-Performance Wedge 24
Table 3.1 Technology Wedge Impact 25
Figure 3.3 Technology Wedge Families 25
Table 3.2 Semiconductor Technology Trends 26
Table 3.3 PC Technology Trends 28
Table 3.4 Storage Technology Trends 34
Table 3.5 Small Form Factor Memory Cards 35
Table 3.6 Emerging PC Opportunities 36
Table 4.1 PC Unit Sales by Region 38
Table 4.2 Regional Market Shares for PC Unit Sale 39
Table 4.3 Regional PC Unit Sales Per 1,000 People 39
Table 4.4 Server PC Unit Sales by Region 40
Table 4.5 Regional Market Shares for Server PC Unit Sale 41
Table 4.6 Desktop PC Unit Sales by Region 41
Table 4.7 Regional Desktop PC Unit Sale Market Shares 42
Table 4.8 Mobile PC Unit Sales by Region 43
Table 4.9 Regional Mobile PC Unit Sale Market Shares 43
Table 4.10 Tablet PC Sales by Region 44
Table 4.11 Regional Tablet PC Unit Sale Market Shares 45
Table 4.12 PCs-in-Use Per 1,000 People by Region 45
Table 4.13 PCs-in-Use by Region 46
Table 4.14 Server PCs-in-Use by Region 46
Table 4.15 Desktop PCs-in-Use by Region 47
Table 4.16 Mobile PCs-in-Use by Region 48
Table 4.17 Households With PCs by Region 49
Table 4.18 PCs-in-Use Per Household by Region 49
Table 4.19 PCs in Homes by Region 50
Table 4.20 Share of PCs in Homes of Total PCs by Region 51
Table 4.21 PCs in Businesses by Region 51
Table 4.22 Share of PCs in Businesses of Total PCs by Region 52
Table 5.1 Worldwide PC Revenues by Region 53
Table 5.2 Regional PC Revenue Market Shares 54
Table 5.3 Server PC Revenue by Region 54
Table 5.4 Regional Server Revenue Market Shares 55
Table 5.5 Desktop PC Revenue by Region 56
Table 5.6 Regional Desktop PC Revenue Market Shares 56
Table 5.7 Mobile PC Revenue by Region 57
Table 5.8 Regional Mobile PC Revenue Market Shares 58
Table 6.1 Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Shipments: 1990-1998 59
Table 6.2 Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Shipments: 1999-2004 59
Table 6.3 Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Shipments: 2005-2010 60
Table 6.4 Leading PC Vendors' Worldwide Unit Market Shares 60
Table 6.5 Leading PC Vendors' USA Shipments: 1990-1998 61
Table 6.6 Leading PC Vendors' USA Shipments: 1999-2004 61
Table 6.7 Leading PC Vendors' USA Shipments: 2005-2010 62
Table 6.8 Leading PC Vendors' USA Unit Market Shares 62
Table 7.1 PC Demand Factors 65
Table 7.2 USA Ultimate PC Penetration in 2010 67
Table 7.3 2010 USA PC Replacement Sales Scenario 68
Table 7.4 Ultimate PC Penetration Factors 68
Table 7.5 PC Forecast Assumptions 69
Table 7.6 PC Product Trend Assumptions 70
Table 8.1 PC Shipment Forecast Content 72
Table 8.2 PC Vendor Forecast Content 72
Table 8.3 USA PC Market Summary 73
Table 8.4 N. America PC Market Summary 76
Table 8.5 W. Europe PC Market Summary 78
Table 8.6 E. Europe PC Market Summary 81
Table 8.7 Europe PC Market Summary 83
Table 8.8 Asia Pacific PC Market Summary 86
Table 8.9 Latin American PC Market Summary 88
Table 8.10 Rest-of-World PC Market Summary 91
Table 8.11 Worldwide PC Market Summary 93
Table 8.12 Apple Computer 96
Table 8.13 Compaq Computer 97
Table 8.14 Dell Computer 99
Table 8.15 Gateway 100
Table 8.16 Hewlett Packard 102
Table 8.17 IBM 103
Table 8.18 NEC & Packard-Bell 105
Table 8.19 Toshiba 106
Table 9.1 PC-Related Newsletter 108
Table 9.2 PC-Related Magazines 109
Table 9.3 PC-Related Websites 110
Table 9.4 PC-Related Organizations 112

 
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