Pocket
PC PDAs To Surpass Palm OS PDAs in Two Years
October 28, 2002—PDA growth rates slowed substantially in 2001—from 80% in 2000 to 30% in 2001, with U.S. growth dropping below 10%. PDA growth rates in 2002 will slow further as the U.S. recession impacts other regions. Growth rates in 2003 will pick up, but it will be 2004 until PDA growth tops 20%. Worldwide PDA sales may exceed 60M units in 2008.
Palm has
been the leading PDA platform the last five years, but it is seeing increasing
competition from Pocket PC, Symbian and Linux. With current trends Palm
will lose its worldwide lead in 2004, but will retain U.S. leadership
until 2008. The long-term winner depends on which of the major PC, electronics
and cell phone manufacturers adopt which PDA platform. Sony is the only
major company that is supporting Palm and Sony’s success is primarily
in the U.S. Palm sorely needs additional allies in international markets
such as China and Europe.
| Worldwide Unit Sales | 2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
| Win CE-Pocket PC (#K) | 2,390 |
5,630 |
9,820 |
17,150 |
27,180 |
| Palm OS PDAs (#K) | 6,635 |
7,080 |
8,580 |
11,480 |
14,655 |
| Other OS PDAs (#K) | 2,715 |
4,055 |
6,795 |
11,965 |
19,150 |
| Worldwide PDAs (#K) | 11,740 |
16,765 |
25,195 |
40,595 |
60,985 |
| USA Unit Sales | 2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
| Win CE-Pocket PC (#K) | 880 |
1,745 |
2,910 |
5,090 |
7,860 |
| Palm OS PDAs (#K) | 4,710 |
4,630 |
5,175 |
6,600 |
7,980 |
| Other OS PDAs (#K) | 390 |
505 |
1,070 |
2,225 |
3,800 |
| USA PDAs (#K) | 5,980 |
6,880 |
9,155 |
13,915 |
19,640 |
“The Palm OS lead is evaporating because the major PC companies are adopting the Pocket PC platform and Palm is running out of major companies that have the worldwide marketing clout to reverse this trend”, says Dr. Egil Juliussen, the author of the report. “Palm will need several major electronics companies to adopt the Palm OS in the next year to have any chance of retaining its lead”.
Computer Industry Almanac publishes market research reports for the PC, PDA, information appliances and Internet industries. For more information see Market Research Reports.
